Posted Messages

Message #: 29439
Message from: Charlie Steinhice
Sent: Nov 12, 2013
Subject: RE: [SmileyList] Blue Jays @ Royals

Joe Carter must have seen this e-mail exchange and decided to prove a point – see the last line of my previous e-mail.

From: SmileyList@yahoogroups.com [mailto:SmileyList@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Jonathan Fellows
Sent: Tuesday, November 12, 2013 6:38 PM
To: SmileyList
Subject: Re: [SmileyList] Blue Jays @ Royals

My feeling is that it was a reaction to Tommy Herr's otherworldly 1985 season when he hit .302 / .379 / .416 but with 110 RBI

He hit .333 / .407 / .452 with RISP (233 PA) with Coleman & McGee stealing 166 bases ahead of him.

On Tue, Nov 12, 2013 at 5:57 PM, sgbivens@... <sgbivens@...> wrote:

They could have just as well made the $ (clutch) kick in with zero out
instead of two out. But then they couldn't have given it the sexy name
"clutch" rating.
I sit here thinking how this rating would look with zero out and I find it
mind bending...

On another note I remember Strat claiming that there was statistical
evidence of clutch hitting but not of clutch pitching and that was their
rational for having one and not the other. And then a few years later they
come out with clutch pitching. Go figure.

sb

Original email:
-----------------
From: Alan Boodman alan.boodman@...
Date: Tue, 12 Nov 2013 17:39:48 -0500
To: SmileyList@yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [SmileyList] Blue Jays @ Royals

I may have to go back and check the old Elias Analysts (or
baseball-reference or Retrosheet) situational stats, but since Strat chose
RISP 2-out as the definition, and made it such that their alteration only
affects batting average (all $ hits given or taken away are singles) I
assumed that they used that same definition -- batting average with RISP &
2-outs -- to determine who gets the $ and who loses.

But I could surely be wrong, as who knows exactly how or why Strat does
anything? :-)

Alan

From: Jonathan Fellows
Sent: Tuesday, November 12, 2013 5:24 PM
To: SmileyList
Subject: Re: [SmileyList] Blue Jays @ Royals

I remember reading somewhere that the clutch rating is based upon some
combination of RBI vs SLG. Which is why leadoff type hitters have terrible
clutch ratings even if they have great BA w/RISP

On Tue, Nov 12, 2013 at 5:19 PM, Alan Boodman <alan.boodman@...>
wrote:

I am in total agreement about Carter and felt that way long before he
showed up on my Strat-O-Matic team. :-)

The guy came to the plate with a zillion men on base during his career,
delivered at a rate no better than anyone else and probably worse -- I'm
sure this has been studied to death -- and somewhere there are people who
probably think he should be in the Hall of Fame because of his tenacity,
courage and fortitude (or whatever).

Looking at his cards over the years, Strat is either onto the guy, or
deliberately isn't doing him any favors with their weak definition of '$'
clutch.

Alan

From: sgbivens@...
Sent: Tuesday, November 12, 2013 5:05 PM
To: smileylist@yahoogroups.com ; smileylist@yahoogroups.com
Subject: RE: [SmileyList] Blue Jays @ Royals

Joe Carter benefitted from RBI opportunities more than any player alive.
I always wondered if Strat created the 'clutch hit' rating (read: RBI
adjustor rating) just for him.
He was NOT a clutch hitter despite his reputation.
Your are correct when you use the word "alleged".

Just one guy's opinion...

Steve B.

Original email:
-----------------
From: Alan Boodman alan.boodman@...
Date: Tue, 12 Nov 2013 16:58:29 -0500
To: SmileyList@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [SmileyList] Blue Jays @ Royals [1 Attachment]

Some surgical split card power gives the opener to the Royals, but the
Jays
come back with an incomplete choke in the game 2 LOB-a-thon and then win
going away in the finale despite some unsteady starting pitching....

Game 1: We had just recovered to take a 4-3 lead in the 6th when
back-to-back surgical split cards leading off the K.C. portion of the
inning erased that lead in record time. The crushing blow came via a
gopher from slugging infielder Mariano Duncan and sent Todd Stottlemyre to
the showers. With the TOA bullpen pitchers having long since proven their
capability for failure, Juan Guzman was given a try -- and now we can add
his name to the list.

Another fortuitous 2-out split card for the home team became a 3-run
gopher
for elderly George Brett, and the rout was complete. Final score: 8-4.
Steve Howe got the relief win for the Royals, his first of the year.

================================================================

Game 2: Joe Carter had a particularly dismal couple of games to cap this
series; today in just the first 4 innings, the alleged clutch superstar
came to the plate 3 times with 6 men on base (4 RISP) and less than 2 outs
and struck out each time.

Thanks to having a ton and a half of baserunners and a lineup not quite
100% of which was clutch chokers (but 6 LOB *in scoring position* in just
4
innings), we built an early 2-0 lead for Jack Morris who held it until a
surgical rally in which 5 Royals in a row reached base in the 7th tied it
up.

Our one reliable (in a *good* way) reliever, Paul Kilgus, sacrificed part
of his rare and precious usage to induce a critical DP that terminated the
surgery, but he had to depart before the contest went into overtime. In
the 10th, pinch hitter Kevin McReynolds tripled home John Olerud with his
first timely hit of the 1993 season, then raced across the plate with an
insurance run when Mitch Williams uncorked a wild pitch.

Final score: 4-2 in 10. Duane Ward got the W with 2 perfect innings (!) in
which the ball never left the infield. Over his last 7 outings, Ward has
lowered his ERA from a disastrous 5.40 to a slightly less disastrous 4.57
and at this rate might get it down to where it deserves to be sometime
next
January.

================================================================

Game 3: Bobby Witt wobbled around but allowed nothing other than singles
and walks (though plenty of them) for 6.2 innings, and today it was the
Royals' turn to edge us out in the LOB category, 12-8. Witt combined with
erstwhile comic reliever Gene Harris on the shutout, with #2 right-handed
reliever Harris reducing his ERA to a season-low (almost) 4.71!

Toronto's offense started off superbly against K.C. batting practice
starter Tim Leary, as 5 of the first 9 Blue Jay batters got hits and hit
for the cycle in the process. Then we slammed on the brakes and let him
hang around until the middle innings. Leary ended up permitting 8 runs
despite our kid glove treatment, but 4 of those resulted from sabotage
defense.

After Brett's single in the 6th the Royals got no further hits, though
Witt
did helpfully load the bases (walk, walk, walk) with 2 outs in the 7th.
Harris then came in and fanned Babe Duncan on 3 pitches and permitted only
1 baserunner (a free pass with 2 outs in the 9th) in his
uncharacteristically effective 2.1 inning stint. Final score: 8-0.

Alan

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'Bother,' said Pooh, as Tigger froze him with a back-door slider.

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