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# Date Sender Subject 5854 Jul 6, 2007   Andrew Kennedy   Bill James-try it for your Smiley team(s) 5855 Jul 7, 2007   Alan Boodman   Week 11 update 5856 Jul 7, 2007   Larry Reeves   Giants CM - week 12 5857 Jul 7, 2007   Michael Rescigno   SLN@SFN WK 11.zip 5858 Jul 7, 2007   Ronald Tidrow   CM week 12 for Chisox 5859 Jul 8, 2007   Alan Boodman   MLN-SLN autoplay 5860 Jul 8, 2007   Alan Boodman   Week 12 begins 5861 Jul 8, 2007   Thomas Austad   Tigers @ Orioles 74-77 5862 Jul 8, 2007   Dennis Van Langen   PIN @ SLN_113-115 5863 Jul 8, 2007   Alan Boodman   Cubs @ Giants 5864 Jul 8, 2007   Andrew Kennedy   Re: [PreSmiley] Week 12 KCA @ NYA 5865 Jul 8, 2007   Michael Petersen   Boston @ Chicago Results 5866 Jul 9, 2007   Rob Tomlinson   PRE SMILEY - BALTIMORE @ KANSAS CITY 5867 Jul 9, 2007   Andrew Kennedy   Re: [PreSmiley] Week 13 CM KCA 5868 Jul 11, 2007   Ronald Tidrow   Results of Cha @ LAn included. 5869 Jul 12, 2007   Rick Field   WAA @ BOA 5870 Jul 12, 2007   Billy Vanson   <<<RESULTS >>> NEW YORK @ DETROIT 5871 Jul 12, 2007   Larry Cupp   Reds sweep Senators 5872 Jul 13, 2007   Larry Reeves   Giants @ Cubs 5873 Jul 13, 2007   Rick Field   WAA (CM) Week 13 5874 Jul 13, 2007   Larry Reeves   Giants CM - week 13 5875 Jul 14, 2007   Alan Boodman   Week 12 update 5876 Jul 14, 2007   Ronald Tidrow   Cha Wk11 CM 5877 Jul 14, 2007   Larry Cupp   Atten: LA owner 5878 Jul 15, 2007   Alan Boodman   Week 12 autoplays 5879 Jul 15, 2007   Alan Boodman   Week 13 begins 5880 Jul 15, 2007   Robert Rescigno   LAN 5881 Jul 15, 2007   Robert Rescigno   Re: [PreSmiley] Atten: LA owner 5882 Jul 15, 2007   Dennis Van Langen   PIN @ MLN_120-122 5883 Jul 15, 2007   Thomas Austad   Tigers @ White Sox 123-126 5884 Jul 15, 2007   Larry Cupp   Atten LA: Reds new CM 5885 Jul 15, 2007   Larry Reeves   Giants @ Tigers 5886 Jul 16, 2007   Robert Rescigno   Re: [PreSmiley] Atten LA: Reds new CM 5887 Jul 16, 2007   Alan Boodman   Cubs @ Dodgers 5888 Jul 18, 2007   Ronald Tidrow   Results Cha@ Was 5889 Jul 18, 2007   Rick Field   WAA @ BOA 5890 Jul 18, 2007   Rick Field   WAA (CM) Week 14 5891 Jul 18, 2007   Robert Rescigno   LAN 5892 Jul 18, 2007   Robert Rescigno   LAN CM 5893 Jul 20, 2007   Billy Vanson   <<<RESULTS >>> New York @ St Louis 5894 Jul 20, 2007   Billy Vanson   ny yankees comp mgr 5895 Jul 20, 2007   Michael Petersen   Boston @ Kansas City 5896 Jul 20, 2007   Larry Reeves   Giants CM - week 14 5897 Jul 20, 2007   Andrew Kennedy   Re: [PreSmiley] Week 13 KCA @ BAA 5898 Jul 20, 2007   Andrew Kennedy   Re: [PreSmiley] Week 14 CM KCA 5899 Jul 20, 2007   Larry Cupp   Reds swept @ The Stick, out of bullets. 5900 Jul 20, 2007   Rob Tomlinson   PRE SMILEY - BALTIMORE @ NEW YORK 5901 Jul 20, 2007   Rob Tomlinson   Re: [PreSmiley] Week 13 KCA @ BAA 5902 Jul 20, 2007   Andrew Kennedy   Fwd: [PreSmiley] Week 13 KCA @ BAA-Corrected folder 5903 Jul 20, 2007   Andrew Kennedy   Re: [PreSmiley] Week 13 KCA @ BAA-with game files 5904 Jul 21, 2007   Alan Boodman   Week 13 update 5905 Jul 21, 2007   Jeff Tripodi   Fwd: Pirates 4, Braves 0 5906 Jul 21, 2007   Alan Boodman   SLN-CHN autoplay 5907 Jul 21, 2007   Ronald Tidrow   Fw: CM for White Sox week 12 5908 Jul 22, 2007   Alan Boodman   Week 14 begins 5909 Jul 22, 2007   Dennis Van Langen   PIN @ CIN_127-129 5910 Jul 22, 2007   Andrew Kennedy   Re: [PreSmiley] Week 14 KCA @ WAA 5911 Jul 22, 2007   Rob Tomlinson   PRE-SMILEY - ORIOLES CM 5912 Jul 22, 2007   Thomas Austad   Tigers @ Orioles 127-129 5913 Jul 23, 2007   Rick Field   WAA @ KCA 5914 Jul 23, 2007   Ronald Tidrow   Results Cha@NYA 5915 Jul 23, 2007   Andrew Kennedy   Re: [PreSmiley] Week 15 CM KCA 5916 Jul 23, 2007   Rick Field   WAA (CM) Week 15 5917 Jul 24, 2007   Alan Boodman   Cubs @ Red Sox 5918 Jul 24, 2007   Billy Vanson   <<<RESULTS >>> NEW YORK @ CHICAGO 5919 Jul 24, 2007   Billy Vanson   NY Yankees week 15 comp mgr 5920 Jul 24, 2007   Alan Boodman   roster expansion 5921 Jul 24, 2007   Dennis Van Langen   Manager opening in a retro league 5922 Jul 24, 2007   Larry Cupp   Re: [PreSmiley] roster expansion 5923 Jul 24, 2007   Alan Boodman   Re: [PreSmiley] roster expansion 5924 Jul 25, 2007   Michael Petersen   Boston @ Detroit Week 14 5925 Jul 25, 2007   Rob Tomlinson   SMILEY/PRE-SMILEY RESULTS (SMILEY - SLN @ SDN) (PRE SMILEY - BAA @ PIN) 5926 Jul 26, 2007   Robert Rescigno   LAN 5927 Jul 27, 2007   Larry Cupp   Reds lose 3 of 4 vs Cubs as usage ball continues to hurt 5928 Jul 28, 2007   Alan Boodman   Week 14 update 5929 Jul 28, 2007   Ronald Tidrow   CM for week 14 5930 Jul 28, 2007   Michael Rescigno   SLN@LA WK 14.zip 5931 Jul 28, 2007   Larry Reeves   Giants @ Braves 5932 Jul 28, 2007   Larry Reeves   Giants CM - week 15 5933 Jul 29, 2007   Alan Boodman   Week 15 begins 5934 Jul 29, 2007   Rob Tomlinson   ORIOLES CM 5935 Jul 29, 2007   Alan Boodman   BAA-PIN game 4 from last week 5936 Jul 29, 2007   Rob Tomlinson   ORIOLES CM - INSTRUCTIONS 5937 Jul 29, 2007   Andrew Kennedy   Re: [PreSmiley] Week 15 KCA @ CHA 5938 Jul 29, 2007   Thomas Austad   Detroit @ Kansas City 141-143 5939 Jul 29, 2007   Andrew Kennedy   Re: [PreSmiley] Detroit @ Kansas City 141-143 gee whiz-i get a sweep at home BUT 5940 Jul 29, 2007   Thomas Austad   Tigers @ Red Sox 134-136 5941 Jul 29, 2007   Dennis Van Langen   SFN @ PIN_134-136 5942 Jul 29, 2007   Michael Petersen   Boston @ Kansas City 5943 Jul 29, 2007   Andrew Kennedy   Re: [PreSmiley] Week 16 CM KCA 5944 Jul 30, 2007   Alan Boodman   Cubs @ Dodgers 5945 Jul 30, 2007   Larry Reeves   Pirates @ Giants (NETPLAY) 5946 Jul 30, 2007   Larry Cupp   Reds split in Milwaukee 5947 Jul 30, 2007   Ronald Tidrow   Results CHA @ WAS 5948 Jul 31, 2007   Rick Field   WAA @ BAA 5949 Jul 31, 2007   Rick Field   WAA (CM) Week 16 5950 Jul 31, 2007   Rick Field   WAA (CM) Week 15 ***Revised*** 5951 Jul 31, 2007   Alan Boodman   Fw: 1970 Hardcore Netplay Retro League Opening 5952 Aug 3, 2007   Billy Vanson   ^^^ RESULTS ^^^ YANKEES @ RED LEGS 5953 Aug 4, 2007   Alan Boodman   Week 15 update 5954 Aug 4, 2007   Rob Tomlinson   PRE SMILEY - BALTIMORE vs. NEW YORK

Previous message                 Next message Message #: 5854 Message from: Andrew Kennedy Sent: Jul 6, 2007 Subject: Bill James-try it for your Smiley team(s) Stumbled on his Wins Share formula. He has long trumpeted the relative worthlessness of the stolen base and sacrifice bunt, I used his formula to predict runs scored and was startled. It is:   (Hits + Walks) * (Total Bases) / (At Bats + Walks)   He claims almost always this will predict to within 5 % the actual runs scored of a team   My "81 A's were 355-353(James formula)   My '60 A's were 421-436(James formula)   The real-life '06 yanks were within a handful of runs also    Obviously, SB,   DP, SH, SF and K's are deemed not to be significant in calculating runs expected to be scored according to James   It can be argued that a SB or a SH can avoid DP's and thus give more opportunities for compiling the stats he deems relevant, but CS and the out  from a SH concedes opportunities also.  and a 5 % swing in runs scored certainly can mean a few games, but still quitter interesting   DREW  See what's free at AOL.com.

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